[SMM Chromium Weekly Review] Chromium prices rise slowly, market transaction activity rebounds

On August 1, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 7,850-7,950 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, it was 7,900-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the quoted price was 8,100-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in South Africa, the quoted price was 7,800-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content); and in Kazakhstan, the quoted price was 8,800-9,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 50 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from the previous trading day.

This week, the ferrochrome market has been generally stable with a slight rise. Retail prices of ferrochrome have slightly increased, downstream demand for stainless steel has improved, and coupled with cost support, market inquiries and transaction sentiments have recovered. On the supply and demand front, mainstream steel mills have slightly reduced their August steel tender prices by 100-200 yuan/mt (50% metal content), leaving ferrochrome producers with a certain profit margin. Additionally, the downstream stainless steel market has been performing strongly, driven by macro tailwinds, with futures and spot prices strengthening. The implementation of previous production cut plans has been limited, and expectations for demand for ferrochrome are positive. Ferrochrome producers have increased their production enthusiasm, and ferrochrome production has reached a peak in 2025, successfully exceeding 800,000 mt. According to SMM data statistics, China's high-carbon ferrochrome production in July 2025 increased significantly, with a MoM increase of 7.52% and a YoY increase of 1.92%. Among them, production in Inner Mongolia increased by 5.37% MoM; production in Sichuan, Guizhou, Guangxi, and other southern regions increased by 18.53% MoM. Considering that there is currently no news of production resumptions in overseas ferrochrome smelting operations, although ferrochrome supply is becoming looser, it still presents a tight balance overall. On the cost side, the fourth round of coke price increases has been implemented, with an increase of 200 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, the spot price of chrome ore has slightly increased, and the immediate smelting cost of ferrochrome has risen, pushing up ferrochrome prices. It is expected that the ferrochrome market will be generally stable with a slight rise in the short term.

On the raw material front, on August 1, 2025, the spot price of 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port was 54.5-55.5 yuan/mtu; the quoted price of 40-42% South African raw ore was 49-51 yuan/mtu; the quoted price of 46-48% Zimbabwe chrome concentrate fines was 57-58 yuan/mtu; the quoted price of 48-50% Zimbabwe chrome concentrate fines was 58-59 yuan/mtu; and the quoted price of 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was 60-61 yuan/mtu, up slightly by 0.5 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous trading day. On the futures front, 40-42% South African fines held steady at $265-270/mt; and 46-48% Zimbabwe chrome concentrate fines were quoted at $310-320/mt.

This week, the chrome ore market has seen improved purchase and transaction activities. Considering subsequent production schedules, ferrochrome producers have gradually started purchasing chrome ore as a raw material during the week, leading to an increase in spot transactions. Coupled with relatively tight inventory levels among traders, there has been a significant reluctance to budge on prices, and quoted prices have been gradually adjusted upwards. Zimbabwe chrome concentrate fines still maintain economic advantages, awaiting the subsequent arrival of cargo ships. There is strong demand for the purchase of South African raw ore with stable quality, and the actual transaction price has risen to +9. In the futures market, traders' willingness to build positions and purchase has continued to increase, with good sentiment in inquiries and transactions. 50,000 mt and 60,000 mt of 40-42% South African fines were traded at $265/mt respectively. There were also a small number of transactions at $267-268/mt. Regarding chrome ore inventory at ports, the total inventory of chrome ore at ports this week was 3.1075 million mt, up 13.26% WoW. A large amount of chrome ore arrived at ports during the week, leading to a significant increase in inventory. Additionally, there is a strong bullish sentiment in the chrome ore market, and it is expected that chrome ore prices will hold up well in the short term.